Why do we need the change in energy use and production?
By Emil Bedi, CANCEE and Hakan Falk, "Energy Saving Now".
The main problem isn’t that we use energy, but how we
produce and consume energy resources. As long as we continue to cover our energy
needs primarily by combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear reactions, we are going
to have the problems, the environmental impacts, social and sustainability
problems. What we really need are energy sources that will last forever and can
be used without pollution of the environment.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION – SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM
 Each year,
the equivalent of approx.
10,000 million tons of coal is consumed on earth as
energy. About 40 % from this is based on oil and together with coal and natural
gas more than 90 % of the total energy consumption result from carbon atoms in
these fossil fuels. The consequence will be a global warming (greenhouse effect)
and the lack of resources in the future.
History of energy
consumption
Ancient discovery of fire and the
possibility of burning wood made available, for the first time, fairly large
amount of energy for mankind. Later (4000 and 3500 years B.C.) after the first
sailing ships and windmills were developed and the use of hydropower began via
water mills or irrigation systems, cultural development began to accelerate. For
several thousands years human energy demands were covered only by renewable
energy sources – sun, biomass, hydro and wind power. It was only until the start
of industrial revolution and the ability to transform heat into motion, when
energy consumption and industrial development accelerated rapidly. The
industrial revolution was a revolution of energy technology based on fossil
fuels. This occurred in stages, from the exploitation of coal deposits to oil
and natural gas fields on a global scale. It has been only half a century since
nuclear power began being used as an energy source. After this fossil-based era
world nears the beginning of another major transition, away from fossil fuels
and towards renewable energy sources once again. Fundamental shift in the energy
picture can be found in the enormous increase of energy demand since the middle
of the last century. That increase is the result not only of industrial
development but also of population growth. World population grew 3.2 times
between 1850 and 1970, per-capita use of industrial energy increased about
20-fold, and total world use of industrial and traditional energy forms combined
increased more than 12-fold.
HOW MUCH ENERGY DO WE USE
?
Today fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas
account for 90% of total primary energy supply. Estimated total world
consumption of primary energy, in all forms (including non-commercial fuels like
biomass), is approximately 400 EJ per year, equivalent of some 9500 million
tonnes of oil (mtoe) per year.
Annual world primary energy consumption,1992 by source
.
|
Fuel
Source |
Consumption in
EJ |
Consumption in
mtoe |
|
Oil |
131 |
3128 |
|
Coal |
91 |
2164 |
|
Natural gas |
75 |
1781 |
|
Biomass |
55 |
1310 |
|
Hydro |
24 |
561 |
|
Nuclear |
22 |
532 |
|
TOTAL |
398 |
9476 |
Development of energy consumption in EJ.
 Assuming a world population of about 5300 million in that
year, this gives an annual average fuel use for every person in the world
equivalent to about 1.8 tonnes of oil. These figures include all fuel used by
industry, commerce, households etc. They also include large quantities of wood
and other biological fuels used mostly in developing countries. Moreover, the
figures are averages over the world’s population, and concealed tremendous
differences between different regions.
Fuels are used per person at
an average rate in developed countries which is more than six times that in the
developing countries. It can be seen from the following table that the developed
countries use nearly twice as much fuel as less developed countries, even
though they have less than a third of their population.
FUTURE TRENDS
 The magnitude of energy problem that may
face future generations can be illustrated by the simple calculation. The
population of the world in 1990 was approximately 5 billion people. The UN
estimates of population trends show it continuing to increase to around 8
billion by 2025, but stabilising towards the end of the next century at
somewhere between 10 and 12 billion people. Most of that increase will be in the
less developed countries. According to the US DOE (Department of energy) outlook
for energy use throughout the world continues to show strong prospects for
rising levels of consumption over the next two decades, led by growing demand
for end-use energy in Asia. World energy demand in 2015 is projected to reach
nearly 562 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
The expected increment in total energy demand between 1995 and 2015 -
almost 200 quadrillion Btu - would match the total world energy consumption
recorded in 1970, just before the energy crisis of 1973. Two-thirds of all
energy growth will occur in developing economies and economies in transition,
with much of that growth concentrated in Asia. Energy growth in the developing
countries of Asia is projected to average 4.2 percent per year, compared with
1.3 percent for industrialized economies. The U.S. growth rate is expected to
average only about 1 percent per year. As recently as 1990, U.S. energy
consumption exceeded total consumption in the nations of developing Asia by 33
quadrillion Btu. By 2015, energy use in developing Asia is expected to exceed
U.S. consumption by 48 quadrillion Btu.
According to the report of US DOE by 2015, oil use is
expected to exceed 100 million barrels per day, a consumption rate 50 per cent
greater than in 1995. Oil trading patterns are expected to shift markedly as oil
consumption in Asia Pacific areas far outpaces domestic production gains,
leading to a large increase in imports from Middle East suppliers. World-wide,
coal use is projected to exceed 7.3 billion tons by 2015, compared with 5.1
billion tons in 1995. Growth in coal use will be regionally concentrated,
occurring for the most part in India and China.
 Natural gas is expected
to have the highest growth rate among fossil fuels, at 3.1 percent a year,
gaining share relative to oil and coal. By 2015 natural gas consumption on a Btu
basis will exceed the total oil consumption recorded for 1995, at a level
equivalent to two-thirds of the oil consumption projected for 2015. Natural gas
consumption in 1995 was only about 55 percent of oil consumption.
According to US DOE
prediction only about 8 percent of projected growth in energy demand over the
next two decades will be served by non-fossil fuel sources. In fact, the
non-fossil (commercial) fuel share of world energy consumption declines from 15
percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Thus, world carbon emissions
are likely to increase by 3.7 billion metric tons, or 61 percent, over the 1990
level by 2015. The Climate Change Convention of 1992 commits all signatories to
search for and develop policies to moderate or stabilize carbon emissions.
However, even if all the developed countries were able to achieve stabilization
of their emissions relative to 1990 levels, overall world carbon emissions would
still rise by 2.5 billion metric tons over the next two decades.
Per capita energy use
in the world’s industrialized economies, which far exceeds the levels in newly
emerging economies, is expected to change only moderately in the next two
decades. In some emerging economies (for example, India and China), per capita
energy use may double. Even with such growth, however, average per capita energy
use in the developing countries will still be less than one-fifth the average
for the industrialized countries in 2015.
In the longer term,
consumption of oil as the principal source of commercial energy today, will
start to decline after the transition phase (between 2020 and 2060). It is
expected that natural gas will continue to be used as long as price and
availability are satisfactory but as reserves reduce or prices rise coal (which
is usually less expensive than natural gas and its international prices are
unlikely to rise) will command a greater proportion of the market. To maintain
energy levels and because of world-wide environmental concerns some experts
predict that coal will have to be utilized cleanly, where gasification process
will be the most environmentally friendly way of its future utilization.
The transition to a
sustainable energy system requires that share of renewable energy sources will
continually grow. Renewables combined with a system of new technologies, can
contribute to a considerable extent to energy requirements in the time horizon
beyond 2020. Report for the UN Solar Energy Group for Environment and
Development suggests that using technology already on the market or at the
advanced engineering testing stage, by the middle of the next century renewable
energy sources could account for 60 percent of the world’s electricity market
and 40 percent of the market for fuels used directly.
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